Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 26.8.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 66.0%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.