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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 6.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (23.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.9%).

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.

Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 62.5%.

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