Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-180/+150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 14.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 58.5%.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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