Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 28.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for tight ends.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 57.8%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (57%) to TEs since the start of last season (57.0%).
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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