Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this season (20.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 4.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 68.6%.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends grade out as the 9th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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