Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 7.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense this season (20.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 4.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.1% to 69.2%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.