Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.
Pat Freiermuth's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this year, averaging 5.1 yards per game compared to a mere 3.6 last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.0%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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