Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 41.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 26.8.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 68.4%.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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