Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth has accrued a whopping 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 23.3.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the best in football since the start of last season.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cleveland's safety corps has been atrocious since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers since the start of last season (a lowly 54.6 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth rates as one of the worst tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.