Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-111/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to total 5.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has put up a colossal 22.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (4th percentile) last year, Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in football in picking up extra yardage.
The Bengals defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.