Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:33 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+100/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Pat Freiermuth to earn 6.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
While Pat Freiermuth has been responsible for 10.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Pittsburgh's passing attack in this game at 16.3%.

Favors Under

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers since the start of last season (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
Pat Freiermuth ranks as one of the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
The Patriots pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.