Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by the model to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Pat Freiermuth to total 4.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has received a colossal 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Steelers last year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.
Pat Freiermuth comes in as one of the bottom TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
Last year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a measly 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.