Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 6.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (23.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.9%).
Pat Freiermuth has put up many more air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 62.5%.

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