Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 6.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has compiled many more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 26.8.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.5%.
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 26.0) versus TEs this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (52.6%) vs. TEs this year (52.6%).

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