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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+249/-416).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +308 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +249.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

Pat Freiermuth has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).

Pat Freiermuth's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 26.8.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in football (80.6%) to tight ends this year (80.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to be much less involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (22.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).

Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 66.0%.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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