Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 11:50 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+279/-485).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +305 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +279.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.4% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has accrued a monstrous 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 83rd percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Pat Freiermuth's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 58.5%.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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