Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-476).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -431 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -476.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has posted a colossal 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth's 28.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 57.8%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the league (57%) to TEs since the start of last season (57.0%).
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.22 per game since the start of last season.

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