Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+234/-381).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +234.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (58.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth's 43.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.3.
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 6th-worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 67.5%.
The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 7th-least passing TDs in the league to TEs: 0.23 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.

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