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Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +290 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Pat Freiermuth has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.

Pat Freiermuth has notched many more air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).

Pat Freiermuth's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.

Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 69.0%.

The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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