Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-402).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +376 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +240.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Pat Freiermuth has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has compiled a colossal 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.