Parris Campbell Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Parris Campbell

NFL · Player Props

Parris Campbell

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Parris Campbell Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+299/-529).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -487 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -529.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Parris Campbell to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (10.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).
Parris Campbell has accounted for a monstrous 22.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among WRs.
The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (67.4%).
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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