Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Parker Hesse

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Parker Hesse has been less involved as a potential target this year (33.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (16.1%).
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (81.1%) vs. tight ends this year (81.1%).
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.41 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
Parker Hesse has been among the bottom pass-game TEs this year, averaging just 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile among tight ends.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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