Parker Hesse Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Parker Hesse

NFL · Player Props

Parker Hesse

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Parker Hesse Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
Parker Hesse has been used less as a potential target this season (28.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (16.1%).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Parker Hesse has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.16 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in football (78%) to TEs this year (78.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.6 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Parker Hesse has posted a mere 4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 25th percentile among TEs.

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