Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Olamide Zaccheaus

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-104/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Olamide Zaccheaus has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this season (15.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (9.6%).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Olamide Zaccheaus's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 62.6% to 72.2%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.