O.J. Howard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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O.J. Howard

NFL · Player Props

O.J. Howard

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

O.J. Howard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+185/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
O.J. Howard has been among the worst tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 14th percentile among TEs.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (69%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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