Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Nyheim Hines

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Nyheim Hines Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Nyheim Hines to earn 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Nyheim Hines has compiled a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Nyheim Hines's 25.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 18.7.
Nyheim Hines has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 21.0 yards per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.