Noah Gray Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:22 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+545/-567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.0% red zone pass rate.
Noah Gray's 74.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a substantial growth in his receiving talent over last year's 62.5% rate.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's group of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
With respect to a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.76 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 7th-most sluggish in football (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.4 per game) this year.
The Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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