Noah Gray Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+733/-852).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 128.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 58.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Gray's 79.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a remarkable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 62.5% mark.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Raiders, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.9 per game) since the start of last season.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of Noah Gray's trading card since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders run defense has yielded a staggering 1.20 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

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