Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 12, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Noah Gray's 19.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 11.3.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.4%) vs. tight ends this year (85.4%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Denver's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
Noah Gray's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 83.2% to 64.8%.

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