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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Noah Gray's 16.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 11.3.

This year, the shaky Eagles pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Noah Gray's 78.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a noteable reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 83.2% figure.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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