Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-195/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Gray to total 4.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Gray to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.