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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Noah Gray's 12.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 3.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Noah Gray's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 71.4% to 74.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (63%) versus TEs this year (63.0%).

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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