Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered a monstrous 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 4th-worst in football.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 8.33 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in football.
The Colts safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.10 seconds per play) will boast the 4th-fastest tempo on the slate this week.
With a bad 63.6% Adjusted Completion% (4th percentile) since the start of last season, Noah Gray stands among the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to tight ends.
Noah Gray ranks as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a measly 5.08 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 4th percentile.