Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Noah Gray has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (61.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (38.1%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Noah Gray has been among the leading TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.66 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 86th percentile.
The Jets defense has conceded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (57.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.2% to 67.0%.
Noah Gray's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging just 6.86 yards-per-target vs a 9.14 figure last season.
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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