Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Noah Gray has accrued far more air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (11.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 16.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 11.3.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Noah Gray's 78.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a noteable reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 83.2% figure.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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