Noah Gray Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1003).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -984 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1003.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has notched many more air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (2.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Noah Gray's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 62.8%.
Noah Gray grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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