Noah Fant Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+770/-900).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Saints to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Saints have been the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 62.6% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (only 50.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

While Noah Fant has received 15.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of New Orleans's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 6.2%.
Noah Fant's 67.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a substantial reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 89.3% figure.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest clip in the league against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season (64.5% Adjusted Completion%).
The Vikings defense has conceded the fewest receiving TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

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