Noah Fant Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+770/-1076).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Noah Fant grades out in the 75th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 0.25 per game.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Saints are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Noah Fant's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 89.3% to 50.3%.
The Raiders pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.5%) versus TEs since the start of last season (72.5%).
Since the start of last season, the porous Raiders run defense has conceded a monstrous 1.26 rushing TDs per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-highest rate in football.

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