Noah Fant Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+900/-1076).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Saints to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 57.5% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have run the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 60.4 plays per game.

Favors Under

New Orleans's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.
Noah Fant's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 89.3% to 50.9%.
The Ravens defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to TEs: 0.28 per game since the start of last season.
The Ravens defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league last year with their run defense.

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