Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Fant has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 11.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
Noah Fant has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an impressive 79.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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