Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to total 4.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Noah Fant has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an impressive 78.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 8th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this season (12.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
Noah Fant's receiving performance has diminished this year, totaling a mere 3.0 yards per game vs 4.2 last year.

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