Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Saints to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (only 50.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Fant's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 12.8.

Favors Under

Noah Fant's 67.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a substantial reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 89.3% figure.
Noah Fant's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 6.25 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.71 mark last year.
The Vikings pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (64.1%).
The Vikings pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 6.60 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.