Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 5, 2026 6:57 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 63.9% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football has been the New Orleans Saints.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Fant's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 12.8.

Favors Under

Noah Fant's 67.4% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a material reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 89.3% mark.
Noah Fant's 6.3 adjusted yards per target this season shows a noteable decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 7.7 mark.
Since the start of last season, the tough Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a puny 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-best in the league.
Since the start of last season, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a feeble 70.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Atlanta's safety corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the 10th-best in the league.