Noah Fant Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-104/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 60.8% pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Saints are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Noah Fant's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 89.3% to 50.3%.
Noah Fant's receiving efficiency has declined this season, compiling just 4.30 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.71 mark last season.
Since the start of last season, the tough Raiders defense has yielded a feeble 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-fewest in the league.

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