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Noah Fant

Noah Fant Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-453).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +300 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Noah Fant has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.1% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile among TEs.

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.

Noah Fant has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).

Noah Fant's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 37.1.

The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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