Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+322/-594).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +332 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +322.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Noah Fant has totaled a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

Noah Fant's 19.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 37.1.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.