Noah Fant Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+382/-788).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +407 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +382.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Noah Fant has totaled a whopping 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 89th percentile for TEs.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be a less important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.0% in games he has played).

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