Noah Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+185/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Noah Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (78.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (29.7%).
Noah Brown's receiving talent has been refined this year, notching 2.9 yards per game vs a measly 1.7 last year.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Noah Brown has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 62.5% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wideouts
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.4%) to WRs this year (63.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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