Noah Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Brown has run fewer routes this year (84.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (30.5%).
Noah Brown's receiving performance has been refined this season, totaling 3.1 yards per game vs a measly 1.7 last season.
The New York Giants linebackers project as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.4% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.3%) versus wideouts this year (61.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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