Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+351/-683).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -567 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -683.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Noah Brown has compiled significantly more air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.6%) versus WRs this year (56.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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